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- While the all-derby format changes things in some respects, the Crusaders remain strong bets for NZ's mini-Super Rugby.
- They are clear leaders for domestic victories in the last three seasons of Super Rugby.
- The Blues may have added Dan Carter, but they show the worst recent derby win record of the five NZ franchises.
Few prizes on offer for guessing the overwhelming dominators of full-strength Super Rugby historically: New Zealand by a landslide.
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As the country gets a head start on any similar aspirations in Australia and South Africa with its all-domestic edition of the event - Super Rugby Aotearoa - beginning on Saturday week, it is worth remembering that New Zealand has boasted the overall winners on 17 of the 24 occasions since professional Super Rugby-proper began in 1996.
Including 10 titles to the legendary Crusaders, that is a huge win percentage of 70.83.
Australia has accounted for four titles (twice Brumbies, once each Reds and Waratahs) and South Africa three (all Bulls).
When this season’s competition came to a grinding halt in mid-March due to the coronavirus, NZ teams - so typically - occupied four of the top six berths on the combined table, with the formidable ‘Saders extremely well-placed all over again in third, just one point behind leaders the Sharks with a match in hand.
But as Super Rugby begins a forced “split” for the moment into derby-based activity behind closed doors, it will be intriguing to gauge whether the New Zealand franchises, in their all-new tournament, merely mirror their situations in the NZ conference ahead of the interruption.
In other words, will we see a repeat of the pecking order in that country from the fuller 2020 competition?
While the Crusaders were best placed in third overall and top of the NZ conference, the rest of the ladder in that country (in descending order) was Blues (fourth overall), Chiefs (fifth), Hurricanes (sixth) and Highlanders (11th).
As if to confirm the strong likelihood of a classic, strength-versus-strength feel to Super Rugby Aotearoa, only six points separated the Crusaders from the Hurricanes in the normal competition – the only notable stragglers were the Highlanders, with a mere seven log points and at least 10 off any other compatriot outfit.
Keep in mind, however, that the Otago-based side were handed two points for a “draw” in their cancelled fixture with the Jaguares in Buenos Aires on the last weekend of scheduled activity in March, and would have felt they had at least a reasonable chance of winning there.
Just how much will the absence of all non-NZ teams affect the balance of power in Super Rugby Aotearoa (to be fully covered live in South Africa on SuperSport)?
An educative exercise to assess that, perhaps, is to study purely NZ derby results over the last three years (the full Super Rugby competitions of 2018 and 2019, and the almost half-sized 2020 version).
On that basis, the Crusaders stay comfortable masters: they have earned 17 derby victories, either home or away, over the past three years.
The Hurricanes are next best with 12, and the Chiefs register nine.
But it is clear that the Highlanders and the Blues (the latter especially so) are going to have to suddenly raise their domestic acts significantly if either side are to lift the silverware after the double round of looming derbies.
The Highlanders have won six derbies in the period under scrutiny, and the Blues a feeble three.
Coming from 19 completed derbies, it means that the last-named side have a lousy win percentage rate of 15.78 in them.
While the acquisition this week of All Black backline legend Dan Carter - albeit an advanced 38 - has been met with understandable excitement in Auckland and environs, the Blues will have to dramatically defy recent derby history, then, to win Super Rugby Aotearoa.
The Crusaders, so comfortable whether playing in Christchurch, elsewhere in New Zealand or beyond those shores, almost certainly remain smartest money for the crown ...
*Follow our chief writer on Twitter: @RobHouwing
