Cape Town – Sport24 chief writer Rob
Houwing, in the next of his regular South African-focused Super Rugby previews
this year, says any Springbok 2016 aspirants from the Lions could do with
humdingers against the Stormers on Saturday to convince new national coach
Allister Coetzee of their worth.
Some of the Capetonian visitors having
blinders in the big ‘un at Emirates Airline Park would do their own Bok causes
no harm, of course, but Coetzee’s strong Stormers heritage means he may already
be subconsciously inclined toward favouring them in the fledgling phase of his
tenure.
Almost all Bok coaches in recent times have
started out with a varying degree of bias toward customers they’re most
familiar with through prior provincial or franchise affiliations: think Heyneke
Meyer (Bulls), Nick Mallett (Stormers/WP) Kitch Christie (the former Transvaal)
and Ian McIntosh (Natal Sharks), among others.
So certain Newlands-based players may have
head starts, like it or not, in the battle for positions in the national side.
In what amounts to a handy, early “Bok
trial” sort of occasion for Coetzee as the respective Africa conference leaders
lock horns, it will be up to ambitious Lions personnel to put a spanner in the
works by noticeably edging any relevant areas of play on Saturday.
Our resident forecasters unanimously (and
perhaps that’s a bit of a surprise?) see home advantage tilting things slightly
the Lions’ way …
*Rob lies 6,015th out of about 193,000
contestants for Super Rugby predictions on SuperBru, with a current win success
rate of 75%.
SPORT24 PICK OF THE CROP
LIONS v STORMERS, Johannesburg
When: Saturday, 19:15
Referee: Stuart Berry (Aus)
TV: M-Net, SS1
SuperSport
commentators: Matthew Pearce & Butch James (Eng),
Hennie Koortzen & Werner Swanepoel (Afrik), Kaunda Ntunja & Makhaya
Jack (Xho)
Weather
outlook: Partly cloudy, warm, light breeze
Background: The timing is perfect for this quality clash, not just because of
the aforementioned Springbok issues at stake but also the premier respective
conference positions of the protagonists. Both meetings in 2015 were
desperately close, with the Stormers a little fortunate to leave the Big Smoke
with a 22-19 win, and then clinging on for a draw at the tail-end of the
competition at Newlands. Expect a similar phenomenon here, I feel; the game may
well be decided right at the death. All areas of the forward battle look truly
engrossing; it is interesting that Robbie Fleck has shuffled his loosie cards
again to accommodate Nizaam Carr as open-side flank and have the athletic
Sikhumbuzo Notshe at seven in preference to the more confrontational Siya
Kolisi against the mobile and industrious Lions trio. But if this is a
high-stakes SA derby that unexpectedly opens up to a profound extent, the Lions
look more culturally geared at present to making key metres with ball in hand.
Use of the benches could be influential: both Fleck and counterpart Johan
Ackermann have some strong game-crackers to let loose when they feel it
necessary.
Key
head-to-head: Hard yards up front may well be
pivotal to the outcome of this one, and in that respect the Stormers could start
to feel more fully the impact of Eben Etzebeth’s sit-out for several weeks. The
gargantuan second-rower gets right up for occasions like this one, and his No 4
replacement JD Schickerling is a different – not to mention considerably less
experienced -- type of player. It only increases the onus on Etzebeth’s
co-Springbok PIETER-STEPH DU TOIT to front up in the muscular stakes in the
second row, where he must counter the Lions’ yeoman workhorse and fearless
rucks-hitter FRANCO MOSTERT. We learned very recently that Mostert will
regrettably be lost to Lyon after this season, so that is an extra spur for him
to want to power the Lions as close as possible toward the 2016 Super Rugby
honours.
Last
result between sides: June 6, 2015: Stormers 19
Lions 19 (Cape Town)
Sport24
staff predictions: Rob Houwing: Lions by two;
Garrin Lambley: Lions by two; Herman Mostert: Lions by three; Lloyd Burnard: Lions
by five.
SA GAME 2
BLUES v SHARKS, Auckland
When: Saturday, 09:35 (SA time
Referee: Jaco Peyper (SA)
TV: M-Net, SS1
SuperSport
commentators: NZ panel
Weather
outlook: Cloudy, mild, moderate wind
Background: The Sharks have a buxom record against these opponents, and should
take some psychological comfort from the fact that they beat them away two
years ago, albeit in the more “outskirts” setting of Albany. Expect the
tourists to throw everything at this fixture, given what an ominous signal it
would be for the remaining dates against the Highlanders and Chiefs if they
crash at the first hurdle. That said, it could still be a tall order, based on
evidence from the last two defeats in Durban, where we were served some painful
deja vu of the Sharks’ bluntness last
season. Also, who is going to get through a pile of donkeywork in the
tight-loose now that Marcell Coetzee has been laid low for the season? Only if
the Sharks have regained proper, collective zest and appetite will they
overcome the bottom-placed NZ franchise, and the Sport24 panel are fairly bleak
about that occurring. Now prove us wrong, Sharks!
Key
head-to-head: Admirable, adaptable professional JOE
PIETERSEN had been serving the Sharks with aplomb as Pat Lambie’s flyhalf
stand-in during earliest matches this season, until he started going off the
boil … perhaps since that costly late place-kick booboo at Loftus? Things
reached a head when he had a particularly error-prone outing in the home loss
to the Lions, and Gary Gold will be praying he recovers his confidence and
verve in the first NZ tour match. Pietersen directly opposes the Blues’ IHAIA
WEST, the former NZ under-20 and Maori All Blacks star who currently lies
second to Damian McKenzie for most points scored in the competition. This game
could be close, and possibly decided by fortunes off the tee …
Last
result between sides: May 23, 2014: Blues 23 Sharks
29 (Albany)
Sport24
staff predictions: Rob Houwing: Blues by seven;
Garrin Lambley: Blues by six; Herman Mostert: Blues by three; Lloyd Burnard: Blues
by five.
SA GAME 3
BULLS v REDS, Pretoria
When: Saturday, 17:05
Referee: Angus Gardner (Aus)
TV: M-Net, SS1
SuperSport
commentators: Derek Alberts & Joel Stransky
(Eng), Gerrie Scheepers & Jaco van der Westhuyzen (Afrik), Alfred Mzizi
& Kaya Malotana (Xho)
Weather
outlook: Partly cloudy, warm, gentle breeze
Background: I would have suggested a more clear-cut Bulls triumph in this one,
had it not been for the Reds’ revitalising, upset victory over the Highlanders
last weekend. That suddenly makes the Aussie outfit, now off the bottom of
their conference, more dangerous opponents … they will believe that the Bulls
are beatable in their own backyard. Still, Adriaan Strauss and company come off
a rollicking win at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium and several of their players
will have still-fresh memories of thumping the Queenslanders by six tries to
four at the very Loftus only last season. The Bulls will win if they replicate
the greater levels of concentration and more consistent shape they exhibited
last Saturday, against a Reds team that looks tidy in certain areas but much
more vulnerable in others (like the second row, where fit stocks are currently
thin).
Key
head-to-head: Part of the reason that the Bulls
disposed of the Kings by a much wider margin than some of us expected in Port
Elizabeth was the livewire, constructive performance last Saturday from LAPPIES
LABUSCHAGNE, stationed at open-side flank for the visitors. He may need to stay
in top gear there, knowing that veteran fetcher Deon Stegmann is fit again and
lurking on the bench for this one. It won’t be too easy as the Reds have a
quality open-sider of their own in LIAM GILL. The 23-year-old would have more
than 15 caps (all as a sub thus far) for just about any other country by now,
but for the fact that Australia are so blessed with specialist pilferers like
David Pocock and Michael Hooper.
Last
result between sides: April 11, 2015: Bulls 43 Reds
22 (Pretoria)
Sport24
staff predictions: Rob Houwing: Bulls by four; Garrin
Lambley: Bulls by eight; Herman Mostert: Bulls by 12; Lloyd Burnard: Bulls by
10.
SA GAME 4
CHEETAHS v SUNWOLVES, Bloemfontein
When: Friday, 19:00
Referee: Nic Berry (Aus)
TV: M-Net, SS1
SuperSport
commentators: Owen Nkumane & Warren Brosnihan
(Eng), Christo Olivier & Derick Hougaard (Afrik), Alfred Mzizi & Kaya
Malotana (Xho)
Weather
outlook: Clear, warm, gentle breeze
Background: If there’s any threat of the Cheetahs entering this game complacent
against their nought-from-six Japanese foes, they would do well to remind
themselves that in the first-round meeting in Singapore, the Sunwolves had
opened up a 31-13 lead early in the second half and seemed headed for victory.
The Cheetahs dug deep, however, to eventually nick that game by a point. Logic
suggests that they should secure a “double” on home soil, although there was
something about the Sunwolves’ durability, even on a Newlands night when they
conceded seven tries to the Stormers very recently, to suggest they will offer
stern resistance in Bloemfontein. It helps that Tusi Pisi is back to take
charge of their tactical plays at flyhalf. But the Japanese side are unfamiliar
to high altitude, and that could spell trouble for them in the final
quarter.
Key
head-to-head: The Cheetahs are likely to seek
pronounced scrumming dominance, and Franco Smith has opted to start here with
Maks van Dyk as tighthead anchorman and the fast-emerging CHARLES MARAIS
providing the left shoulder. Much-travelled, Paarl Boys’ High-educated Marais
has looked very compelling at set-piece time this year, with some pundits even
touting him as a Bok possible at some point. He will hope to dominate the
Sunwolves’ No 3 TAKUMA ASAHARA, an occasional Japan Test player who will
concede a bit on the scales to Marais.
Last
result between sides: March 12, 2016: Sunwolves 31
Cheetahs 32 (Singapore)
Sport24
staff predictions: Rob Houwing: Cheetahs by four;
Garrin Lambley: Cheetahs by 16; Herman Mostert: Cheetahs by 13; Lloyd Burnard: Cheetahs
by eight.
*Follow
our chief writer on Twitter: @RobHouwing