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Cape Town - The likelihood is mounting that a giant South African "Super Rugby union" - for the first time in three campaigns - will miss the knockout cut in this year's quickfire domestic Currie Cup competition.
It might even be more, if early pace-setters the Free State Cheetahs and Griquas, both from the reasonably unfashionable central region of the country, maintain their competitiveness.
Already at the halfway stage of the 2019 Currie Cup league phase for several teams, and the others getting there this weekend, the table is marked by the quartet of unions with greater Super Rugby status (Lions, WP, Sharks, Bulls) occupying only berths three to six, in that order.
So there is even an outside chance that as many as two of them won't qualify for the domestic semis, unless they pull their socks up with some haste.
The Blue Bulls are in special peril with their mere five points and one victory from three outings, which explains the "must win" climate of urgency at Loftus as they prepare for Saturday's home date with Griquas (17:15).
Like several of the other big unions, they are currently missing some valuable personnel on Springbok squad duty, but that doesn't help plaster over the sobering fact that their depth - for Super Rugby 2020 - is already looking questionable in the wake of so many depressing departures since their gutsy showing in the 2019 version.
Failure to make the Currie Cup last four would only drive home that point, which is why some of their fresher faces need to speed up their maturity curves, if you like, over the next few weeks if they are to then prosper at a superior level in the next SANZAAR competition.
Once they have got past the Griquas date - ideally, for their purposes, with a revitalising win under the belts - Pote Human's charges tackle the Lions away and Sharks (defending champions) at home, so not the easiest of finishes.
For each of the previous two seasons in the Currie Cup, the top four on the log have ended up being the "Super Rugby" unions, whether in a similarly single-round competition (2018) or on a double-round basis (2017).
The major spanner in the works this year, of course, has been the sizzling start by a Free State Cheetahs side boasting (unlike last year, when they finished rock bottom and winless) the nucleus of their PRO14 players.
If they win their imminent, Friday night home clash (19:15) with the similarly unbeaten Golden Lions, the Cheetahs will be wonderfully placed for semis qualification ... and quite likely a Bloemfontein one, into the bargain.
But if they were then to advance to the showpiece as well, on September 7, it would raise the question of whether they’d played a little too much rugby ahead of another arduous slog in the 2019/20 PRO14.
Just under three weeks later, on September 27, they lift the curtain on that competition by hosting Glasgow Warriors, the 2015 champions.
If they were playing Currie Cup rugby all the way to its final, they would be in a good position to hit the ground running - faster than the rustier northern hemisphere teams, you would think - in the PRO14, but also at risk of waning toward the business end, as it stretches all the way to the end of June 2020 with the usual demands of criss-crossing the equator fairly often.
But there is still just about enough scope for Currie Cup fortunes to change fairly dramatically for several sides before the knockout pecking order is settled ...
*Follow our chief writer on Twitter: @RobHouwing
