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Cape Town – So is it cut and dried, then, that Hashim Amla plays for the Proteas INSTEAD of Aiden Markram in red-letter game one of CWC 2019 against England at The Oval on Thursday?
That there is a straight selection shootout between them for one slot as Quinton de Kock’s opening partner has long been the speculation in the last few weeks … and understandably so, in several respects.
Now that the veteran, previously long out-of-form Amla has scored successive half-centuries in warm-up matches – illuminatingly crisp and confident ones, into the bargain – it seems his ticket is assured.
“I didn’t know there was a debate,” national coach Ottis Gibson was reported as saying, even if perhaps a little disingenuously, in the lead-up to the much-hyped tussle against the host nation (11:30 SA time).
That nevertheless suggests that the 36-year-old, who will simultaneously be South Africa’s broadly most experienced international figure at the World Cup crease, restores his historically fruitful alliance with De Kock up front.
Notably less analysed, however, is whether that automatically spells curtains for Markram’s chances of turning out against England.
It depends on just how truly “settled” Gibson and his lieutenants consider the frontline batting line-up to be.
Conventional wisdom would arguably be that, in a strict scenario of “Amla over Markram”, the top six will read: Amla, De Kock, Faf du Plessis, Rassie van der Dussen, David Miller, JP Duminy.
It is the type of structure -- even allowing for some flexibility in specific order of taking guard -- the Proteas have generally favoured in recent months.
But it also leaves a lingering, intriguing question: just how highly do the wise men value Test opener Markram as a one-day international player?
If he still finds a place, elsewhere in the order, at The Oval, then the answer can almost certainly be deduced to be: extremely so.
Under those circumstances, you see, he will have cracked open the status quo to a significant degree, as it will instead mean one of Van der Dussen, Miller or Duminy (you can naturally exclude wicketkeeper De Kock and captain Du Plessis), and a little against the odds, sitting the clash out.
Gibson has on previous occasions acknowledged publicly, and quite correctly, that Markram can be more than just a top-order factor.
He made his ODI debut as a No 4, promptly striking 66 against Bangladesh in East London (2017/18), and one of his most talked-about domestic innings of last summer was that dramatically game-shifting 169 for the Titans against the Cobras in a white-ball encounter at Newlands – from No 5.
On that day, he reached a crescendo of pyrotechnic effectiveness toward the back end of the innings, very much reminding that he can “finish” as lethally as he starts on a good day.
He also sports form – something skipper Du Plessis says he favours – and very recent “local knowledge” through a rosy stint on Hampshire’s books.
If any of the trio mentioned don’t get to start the World Cup, they will be no less unlucky, really, than Markram if he is the one restricted to a bib and possible bottle-carrying against England.
Duminy seems the least likely possible casualty of the three, given that he is viewed as the “extra half-dose” spinner, supplementing the likely full quota of 10 overs from specialist Imran Tahir to add to his vast experience at the crease.
That narrows things down, arguably, to either of Van der Dussen – admirably reliable and unflappable since his debut last season, though only with exposure to SA-soil ODIs thus far – or Miller making way if there is adamant thought from management that Markram is to be accommodated for the inviting X-factor he offers.
Speaking of X-factor, Miller is renowned for his near-unstoppable carnage at the crease when he is on song, and his ODI record in the UK is certainly not to be sniffed at (average 48, 10 matches).
But here’s the win-win thing: even if Markram fails to displace any of Van der Dussen, Miller or Duminy for the opener, the fact that he will be lurking right nearby in the 15-strong party means there will be no scope for most incumbents in the specialist batting to rest on their laurels in any manner.
Deft management of all resources in the squad will be required, and it would also be ill-advised and knee-jerk for any batsmen to be made to feel they will have to come off virtually every time they take to the CWC crease -- by its very nature, limited-overs cricket requires risk and that doesn’t mandatorily translate into constant, personal reward.
Perhaps this forecast can be made with some confidence: Aiden Markram might be dormant against England, and possibly also onward against Bangladesh at the same venue on Sunday. But he also won’t be an unrelenting “extra” at this World Cup …
*Follow our chief writer on Twitter: @RobHouwing
