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Contador has power to burn

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Chris Carmichael (File)
Chris Carmichael (File)
Chris Carmichael

Tour de France riders have two places that reveal their true fitness: the mountains and the time trials. On the rolling and flat stages in between, both weaknesses and strengths can be hidden. You can look strong when you're actually suffering or play it meek when you feel like superman. But when the pace gets hard on a big mountain climb, there's no room for acting. If you have the power you'll make the selection and stay with the leaders. If you don't, you won't. So, with the first major summit finish on tap for Stage 7, yesterday was the day when all the yellow jersey contenders had to show their cards.

For the most part, every pre-race yellow jersey favourite passed the first climbing test of the 2009 Tour de France. The only rider who lost a little bit of time was Astana's Andreas Kloden, and he only conceded about 20 seconds to the main group containing the yellow jersey contenders. Of course, 21 seconds ahead of that main group was Alberto Contador, who used the first foray into the mountains to send a message to all challengers that they have now entered his favourite territory.

Contador's ability to accelerate on a climb is fabulous; he's so lightweight and powerful that his power-to-weight ratio is very high. Power-to-weight ratio (PWR) is a measure we use to derive an apples-to-apples comparison of climbing strength between riders of different weights. A bigger rider has more muscle mass and can therefore generate more power. But he also has to carry that mass up the climb, meaning a rider who weighs less can afford to generate less power and still go uphill faster than a bigger rider. PWR is described as watts-per-kilogram, and we determine a rider's PWR by taking his sustainable power and dividing it by his weight in kilograms. In other words, if Big Boy weighs 78 kilograms and can generate 430 watts for a 20-minute climb, his PWR is 5.5 watts/kg. Little Man, on the other hand, might generate 380 watts - 50 watts less than Big Boy-for the same 20-minute climb. However, if Little Man weighs 68 kilograms, his PWR would be 5.6 watts/kg and he'd stay with or reach the summit of the climb before Big Boy, despite generating less power.

Keep in mind, however, that PWR is entirely dependent on time. You can't make a blanket statement that Little Man has a PWR of 5.6 watts/kg, because a rider's PWR will be higher on short climbs and lower on longer ones. Fatigue also plays a role. At the end of a 220-kilometer race like Stage 7 of the 2009 Tour de France, no rider will have a PWR as high as he had in a pre-Tour test (even if the test were held on yesterday's finishing climb). For instance, when you look at power files from the Tour de France, the leaders on the mountain-top finishes might have a PWR of 4.4 - 4.7 on the final climb of the day that lasts 30 minutes. Those same riders, in a 30-minute pre-Tour climbing test, performed when they were well rested and after only a 45- to 60-minute warm-up (as opposed to after 4 hours and at least one other major mountain pass), might record a PWR greater than 6 watts/kg. For a long time, I've considered anything above 6.5 watts/kg - in a 30-minute pre-Tour test - to be a sign that a rider has the climbing strength to be a contender for the yellow jersey at the Tour de France.
 
I don't know Alberto Contador's exact PWR, but watching the way he can accelerate on climbs indicates that it's quite high, and more than requisite to win the Tour de France. He's proven that already with a yellow jersey from 2007 and victories in the Tours of Italy and Spain. When you have a high PWR, accelerating on climbs is the best way to take advantage of it. For riders like Contador, the steeper the grade, the greater the advantage. Bigger, more powerful riders can climb very fast, but if their PWRs are lower it takes them longer to get all that mass moving faster. They can't adjust to accelerations and changes in pace quite as well.

Yesterday, Contador took advantage of his high PWR and jumped clear of the pack containing all the yellow jersey contenders with about two kilometres left to race. He quickly opened a gap, and it fell to Cadel Evans (Silence-Lotto) and Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank) to take up the chase.

For their part, Contador's Astana teammates Lance Armstrong and Levi Leipheimer were in a great tactical position. With Contador up the road, they were under no pressure to assist in the chase, forcing the men on rival teams to go to the front and chase through the wind. Had the chase worked and brought Contador back into the group, Armstrong or Leipheimer would have been in a perfect position to attack and force Astana's rivals to continue burning through their energy.

The big-picture consequence of today's stage is that Astana showed they have the collective strength to gradually eliminate all other contenders. This was the first of three days in the Pyrenees, and the peloton still have the Alps to ride through and the final mountain climb of Mont Ventoux. With all their rivals behind them on the overall standings, Astana's top riders could continue to ride like they did today, force the others to dig deep into their reserves to chase down attacks, wear them down, and systematically take chunks of time out of all of them. Lance talked about it earlier this week. Before the team time trial, he told Contador that winning Stage 4 could be the start of making it impossible for anyone else - besides Astana - to win the 2009 Tour de France.

Source: www.bicycling.co.za
 
Chris Carmichael has been Lance Armstrong's coach for 20 years and is the founder of Carmichael Training Systems (CTS).

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