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The petrol price is currently on track for a hike at the start of May, while diesel could be lowered slightly.
The latest estimate from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows the price of 95 unleaded petrol is due for an increase of 34c a litre in the first week of May, while the wholesale price of diesel could fall by between 24c and 29c a litre.
"The decrease in diesel prices is especially welcome as it will not result in higher input costs across various sectors, and this won’t be a driving factor in consumer prices increasing," the Automobile Association (AA) noted in a statement.
Illuminating paraffin may be lowered by around 16c. South African fuel prices are largely determined by international oil costs and the rand exchange rate, as oil is priced in dollars. Oil surged last week amid military tensions between Israel and Iran.
The OPEC+ grouping's output cuts have also pushed prices higher. Brent crude hit $92 a barrel last week from below $85 last month. The rand has also taken a hit amid clearer signs that US rates won't be cut soon.
The local currency weakened from R18.45/$ last week to above R19.10 overnight.
"(With) tensions ramping up in the Middle East, the local currency could be under significant pressure going into the last two weeks of April and could have a more significant impact on local fuel prices in May.
"At this stage it’s important to keep an eye on that indicator as we head into the new month,” says the AA.
At the start of April, 95 petrol was hiked to R25.12 a litre in Gauteng and R24.33 in coastal areas - the highest level since October last year. The wholesale cost of diesel is currently at R22.45 a litre in Gauteng and R21.55 on the coast, also the highest level since October.
The article has been updated to correct that diesel prices may fall in May - not increase.
