Brazil v Argentina final?

2014-05-28 09:55
Brazil vs. Argentina: The predicted Soccer World C
Brazil vs. Argentina: The predicted Soccer World Cup Final. Photograph: Rich Schultz/Getty Images.
Cape Town - Rivals Brazil and Argentina are set to meet in the Soccer World Cup final in July, with the host country winning the title for a record sixth time, US investment bank Goldman Sachs have predicted in a report.

Goldman sees a 48.5 percent probability that Brazil will win the July 13 final, with Argentina and Germany the next most likely teams to succeed with a 14.1 percent and 11.4 percent chance, respectively.

The predictions were based on a statistical model that analysed about 14 000 competitive international matches since 1960.

"Of course, it is hardly surprising that the most successful team in football history is favoured to win a World Cup at home," the Goldman report, written by Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, Sven Jari Stehn and Donnie Millar, said.

"But the extent of the Brazilian advantage in our model is nevertheless striking."

South American teams have won all four previous World Cup tournaments held on the continent.

Goldman's predicted a 3-1 victory for Brazil would add to the decades of rivalry with neighbouring Argentina, who have won the World Cup twice previously.

Brazil are predicted to reach the final after overcoming the Netherlands, Uruguay and Germany in each of the knockout phases, while Argentina is forecast to beat Ecuador, Portugal and Spain.

Goldman's model though is not foolproof.

Using data ahead of the 2010 World Cup, it had predicted Brazil, with a 26.6 percent chance, would win in South Africa. They crashed out in the quarter-finals.

Eventual winners Spain, however, were second favourites with a 15.7 percent probability of winning.

Andres Iniesta's extra-time goal gave Vicente del Bosque's side a 1-0 victory over the Netherlands in the final and their first World Cup title.

Read more on:    argentina  |  brazil  |  soccer world cup  |  soccer

What To Read Next


Read News24’s Comments Policy publishes all comments posted on articles provided that they adhere to our Comments Policy. Should you wish to report a comment for editorial review, please do so by clicking the 'Report Comment' button to the right of each comment.

Comment on this story
Comments have been closed for this article.
Live Video Streaming
Video Highlights
Sport Talk

Love 2 Meet
Sport24 on Twitter

Follow Sport24 news on Twitter


With the Absa Premiership in full swing, who will be crowned champions when all is said and done? Will Mamelodi Sundowns defend their title? Or can Kaizer Chiefs, Orlando Pirates or Bidvest Wits mount a serious challenge? Stay glued to Sport24 to find out!

Latest blogs

Who will claim the Premier League title at the end of the 2016/17 season?

Twitter Follow Sport24 on Twitter

Facebook "Like" Sport24's Facebook page

WIN Enter and win with Sport24!

BlackBerry Stay in the loop on your BlackBerry

RSS Feeds Sport news delivered really simply.

There are new stories on the homepage. Click here to see them.