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Barcelona - If history is any guide at all, then the destiny of Friday's French Top 14 final between Racing 92 and Toulon could be in the hands of Dan Carter and Leigh Halfpenny.
Or their boots, to be more precise.
The Nou Camp stadium, with its capacity of
99 000, is used to the free-flowing football of Barcelona superstars Lionel
Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez.
But when rugby comes to town on Friday, a
low-risk game looks on the cards.
In the last 10 Top 14 finals, only 19 tries
have been scored and more than 71 percent of the points have come from the boot
- 239 out of 334.
The last five finals have been even more
tense with only four tries scored while the 2012 final between Toulouse and
Toulon and last year's decider featuring Clermont and Stade Francais were
decided by the boot.
An average of just nine points has
separated the winner and vanquished in finals since 2006 and just six since
2011.
There was also little between Toulon and
Racing in the regular season.
Racing won the first match in the Top 14 by
27-22 as well as their European Cup quarter-final duel, 19-16.
Toulon then grabbed the honours back in the
Top 14 return fixture winning 21-20.
It is statistics like these that have many
pundits looking to All Blacks' World Cup winner Carter and Toulon's Welsh
full-back Halfpenny, who has returned after a nine-month injury absence, as the
key men thanks to their deadly accuracy with the boot.
"In finals there are tries and
sometimes there are not," said Toulon coach Bernard Laporte, who will
oversee his last match at the club on Friday.
"That's the charm of rugby, you never
know what will happen in advance. Will it be close? I think we are two teams
who like to play - just look at the semi-finals.
"I don't see why on Friday should be
any different. It is certain that at the start we will take a look at each
other, nobody wants to be found out."
Laporte's team were the top try scorers in
the championship during the regular season with 89 and boast backs of speed and
power in the shape of Johan Goosen, Brice Dulin and Juan Imhoff.
Physical freshness will also be key - both
on the pitch and off the bench.
Racing will be playing for a 19th successive weekend and last Friday needed extra-time to defeat Clermont 34-33 in a marathon semi-final.
Toulon, who have had a day less to prepare
after their 27-18 win over Montpellier put them into a fourth Top 14 final in
five years, have been hit by injuries.
They will be without marquee names such as
Ma'a Nonu, Drew Mitchell, Sebastien Tillous-Borde, Juanne Smith and Duane
Vermeulen.
But they can still call on the raw,
destructive power of French centre Mathieu Bastareaud and flying Fijian winger
Josua Tuisova.
Their Georgian forward power of Mamuka
Gorgodze, Konstantin Mikautadze and Levan Chilachava can smash through the
toughest of defensive walls.
Racing too have plenty of power in the pack thanks to All Blacks No8 Chris Masoe, prop Ben Tameifuna and second row Bernard Le Roux.
