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Johannesburg - With only three of the sides, Maties, Ikeys and Pukke, assured of semifinal places in the FNB Varsity Cup, the final round of the group matches on Monday leaves a number of permutations for qualifying and also the various opponents for the play-offs.
Unbeaten Maties will play their semifinal at home. They have not lost to the Tukkies in four years and their results over the past few rounds must place them as favourites and to remain unbeaten in their seven matches when they meet the Pretoria students in Stellenbosch.
While the Maties have become better as the season has progressed, the Tukkies, conversely, became more uncertain of themselves after leading the competition for the first three rounds.
A defeat for the Maties could see the Ikeys sneak into first place and relegating the Maties into second place. However, to claim the first spot, the Ikeys will also have the beat the Pukke who have improved of late after a slow start in Potchefstroom.
Tukkies simply need a win to progress. A loss with a bonus points will put them on 17 league points, four ahead of UJ's 13. UJ should beat the MNNU in Port Elizabeth and that will put the two sides on a count-out on points difference. However, on present form the Madiba's are bound to leak four tries for a UJ bonus point and advancement to the play-offs at the expense of Tukkies.
Although Pukke have qualified, they will aim to put four tries past the Ikeys - something that has not been done in this year's competition. If the Pukke succeed, they will have home advantage in the semifinal - against the Ikeys. If they don't, they will have to travel down to the Cape to play either the Maties or Ikeys, depending who ends second on the final log, in the semifinal.
However, should Pukke lose and Tukkies beat the Maties, Pukke could end up fourth, depending on bonus points for them and Tukkies and the points difference.
Even the Shimlas, who have been disappointing except for the one match against UJ which they won 39-22, are not out of semifinal contention. The Shimlas are through if both Tukkies and UJ lose their respective matches and Ikeys beat TUT by about 40 points or more (depending on the margin of the losses of the other two, should they of course lose).
The fourth-placed side, one of UJ, Tukkies, Shimlas or Pukke, will play the first-placed of the Ikeys or Maties in the Western Cape.
Now what are the chances of the respective sides this weekend? Maties should beat Tukkies in Stellenbosch. They are too good and professional a side and too well-drilled to slack off when it matters. But then, there were last year's semifinals and topsy-turvy group results that indicate that anything is possible in this exciting competition.
UJ will chase the four tries in Port Elizabeth against a side that has shown resilience until their last two outings when they were overpowered by the Maties (58-3).
UJ will win, but a bonus point for four tries is not assured.
Pukke have a good chance of beating Ikeys in Potchefstroom after the Cape students have gone off the boil in their last outing against the Shimlas where they won 23-20, but four tries for the Pukke to get a home semifinal is unlikely.
At TUT, the Pretoria students could spring a surprise against the Shimlas who have varied from brilliant to disappointing in their season - and a TUT win and NMMU defeat will also determine the wooden spoonists who will have to play off for a place in the competition next year.
The abbreviated log after six of the seven group matches is: Maties 27 Ikeys 24 Pukke 19 Tukkies 16 UJ 13 Shimlas 11 NMMU 4 TUT 2 Monday night's fixtures (home teams first) 4.45pm: Pukke v Ikeys (TV).
6.45pm: Maties v Tukkies (TV); TUT v Shimlas; NMMU v UJ.
