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Johannesburg - Logic would decree that the Springboks will win the first Tri-Nations Test in the 2010 series against the All Blacks at Eden Park in Auckland on Saturday.
However, caution should prevail for the Boks' start of their defence of the Tri-Nations title against the world's top-ranked side.
In the first instance, there is the little matter of a winless record by South Africa at this venue for the past 73 years and in six subsequent Test matches after winning the first two in 1928 and 1937.
Then there is the hurt pride of the All Blacks - and the added motivation to prove wrong Springbok coach Peter de Villiers who recently stated New Zealand rugby is not a strong as it used to be.
There is also the danger of over-confidence by the Springboks. They beat Wales with a rather scratch side, annihilated the Six Nations champions France in Cape Town, struggled against a poor Italian side in Witbank and then beat the also-rans comprehensively with a good performance in East London.
If France is the benchmark, there is also the question of how good the European champions really are. They were beaten by Argentina by a similar margin to that of the Boks' 42-17 win at Newlands. Argentina went on to lose to Scotland who won their first series in many a year when they toured South America.
It must be said, however, it was a French side showing 14 changes from the one which was thrashed by South Africa.
The Springboks also lost four of their 12 Tests last year despite beating the British and Irish Lions and winning the Tri-Nations, arguably the two contests which really count.
De Villiers and his staff have, unlike the All Blacks, started investing in the future. Francois Louw is a real find, and greenhorn fullback Zane Kirchner has shown he has what it takes. This is his opportunity to cement his place in the starting line-up against a shrewd tactician and pinpoint kicker like Dan Carter.
For the rest it is very much the same again as the Boks go into battle with an experienced team and a specialist tighthead prop in a reshuffled front row which will be difficult to contain.
It is a team selected on form with Wynand Olivier in midfield and newcomer Louw and it is also a team which understands each other's play and the small technicalities needed in a Test cauldron.
That it is also a team filled with leaders and senior players in itself makes this a formidable side.
The All Blacks on the other hand have decided to ignore form in certain positions in a trade-off gamble with experience. This could work for them - or against them - with the Boks likely to exploit any possible weaknesses.
The Boks can - and should - win. It will be a tremendous relief for the side playing at one of the venues for next year's World Cup, possibly even in a semi-final against the All Blacks themselves.
It will also give them a big advantage to win their first match in the Tri-Nations away from home and to show winning in New Zealand is no longer regarded as impossible.
Whatever happens from 09:35 (SA time) on Saturday, the fight for the world No 1 spot on the rankings will start off with a bang.
