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Rob Houwing, Sport24 chief writer
Cape Town - If the Bulls are to retain their Super Rugby crown in 2011, it is probably going to require easily the hottest streak any side has managed in the expanded competition this year.
GALLERY: Springboks planning camp
GALLERY: Week 17 Super Rugby action
They must be rightly cock-a-hoop after clawing their way back into contention from a situation where they were so nearly also-rans several weeks ago, the 19-16 triumph over the Stormers at Newlands on Saturday representing a sixth win for them on the trot.
A seventh against the Sharks is likely to be necessary at Loftus this weekend to get them into the finals series, and then they would also require three more wins in consecutive knockout matches (a “sudden death” game, semi-final and final) to be able to lift the trophy for the fourth time in five seasons.
The only chance of their winning habit being broken against the Sharks, whilst still making the six-team playoffs cut, is if the presently seventh-placed Waratahs unexpectedly lose to the Brumbies in Sydney in the closing round of league fixtures.
So the likeliest requirement, if Victor Matfield is to lift the cup once more, is an incredible sequence of 10 victories on the trot - quite a feat in a radically restructured 2011 format with its heavier emphasis on punishing derbies.
Considering that the Bulls are almost certainly not going to be SA conference winners, and will thus finish fourth overall at best, there is also going to be a fair amount of further travel involved (either domestically or internationally, or both) if they do go all the way to another final.
Thus, while some Bulls fans appear to be gleefully suggesting the balance of power in South Africa may be slowly shifting back to Pretoria, following their bruising win down south on Saturday night, they would do well to bear in mind that the Stormers remain likelier to have a hugely more favourable run-in on paper, including a bye in two weeks’ time and then home semi if they can knock over the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein.
The possibility of a near-instant replay between the Stormers and Bulls, again at Newlands, in a fortnight certainly exists, if the Stormers fail to beat the Cheetahs and finish third overall as SA conference winners but with a hugely unwanted extra match thus required.
A glance at the fortunes of the present top six sides in Super Rugby this season does the Bulls’ title-retention hopes no favours: it indicates that no team has yet managed more than seven triumphs on the trot, with a dip in fortunes almost inevitable thereafter, considering the intensity and physical toll and gruelling amount of rugby being played.
The best streaks thus far are the table-topping Reds’ and now-fading, fourth-placed Blues’ seven wins each.
The Blues can boast an unbeaten run of nine matches, in fact, but sandwiched in between is a 22-22 draw with the Force in Perth on March 12, and in recent weeks they have begun losing much more regularly - at an inconvenient time.
Great local rivals the Stormers can match the Bulls’ current achievement of six wins in succession; these occurred in their first six matches of the season before they stumbled 19-6 at Newlands against the Reds. Similarly, the Crusaders have had a six-wins streak.
Of course the Sharks remain in the playoffs picture, too, despite the topsy-turvy, unconvincing nature of their campaign being reflected in the fact that they have not managed more than four consecutive wins.
Like the Stormers, their charge came right at the start, including two victories in Australia on the first leg of their Antipodean tour, before they lost to the Chiefs and Crusaders (that game at Twickenham) and have never recaptured real momentum since.
Bulls supporters should be under no illusions, despite their team’s impressive form as things stand, that they still have it all to do, and will have to show unprecedented stamina to retain the title ...
Cape Town - If the Bulls are to retain their Super Rugby crown in 2011, it is probably going to require easily the hottest streak any side has managed in the expanded competition this year.
GALLERY: Springboks planning camp
GALLERY: Week 17 Super Rugby action
They must be rightly cock-a-hoop after clawing their way back into contention from a situation where they were so nearly also-rans several weeks ago, the 19-16 triumph over the Stormers at Newlands on Saturday representing a sixth win for them on the trot.
A seventh against the Sharks is likely to be necessary at Loftus this weekend to get them into the finals series, and then they would also require three more wins in consecutive knockout matches (a “sudden death” game, semi-final and final) to be able to lift the trophy for the fourth time in five seasons.
The only chance of their winning habit being broken against the Sharks, whilst still making the six-team playoffs cut, is if the presently seventh-placed Waratahs unexpectedly lose to the Brumbies in Sydney in the closing round of league fixtures.
So the likeliest requirement, if Victor Matfield is to lift the cup once more, is an incredible sequence of 10 victories on the trot - quite a feat in a radically restructured 2011 format with its heavier emphasis on punishing derbies.
Considering that the Bulls are almost certainly not going to be SA conference winners, and will thus finish fourth overall at best, there is also going to be a fair amount of further travel involved (either domestically or internationally, or both) if they do go all the way to another final.
Thus, while some Bulls fans appear to be gleefully suggesting the balance of power in South Africa may be slowly shifting back to Pretoria, following their bruising win down south on Saturday night, they would do well to bear in mind that the Stormers remain likelier to have a hugely more favourable run-in on paper, including a bye in two weeks’ time and then home semi if they can knock over the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein.
The possibility of a near-instant replay between the Stormers and Bulls, again at Newlands, in a fortnight certainly exists, if the Stormers fail to beat the Cheetahs and finish third overall as SA conference winners but with a hugely unwanted extra match thus required.
A glance at the fortunes of the present top six sides in Super Rugby this season does the Bulls’ title-retention hopes no favours: it indicates that no team has yet managed more than seven triumphs on the trot, with a dip in fortunes almost inevitable thereafter, considering the intensity and physical toll and gruelling amount of rugby being played.
The best streaks thus far are the table-topping Reds’ and now-fading, fourth-placed Blues’ seven wins each.
The Blues can boast an unbeaten run of nine matches, in fact, but sandwiched in between is a 22-22 draw with the Force in Perth on March 12, and in recent weeks they have begun losing much more regularly - at an inconvenient time.
Great local rivals the Stormers can match the Bulls’ current achievement of six wins in succession; these occurred in their first six matches of the season before they stumbled 19-6 at Newlands against the Reds. Similarly, the Crusaders have had a six-wins streak.
Of course the Sharks remain in the playoffs picture, too, despite the topsy-turvy, unconvincing nature of their campaign being reflected in the fact that they have not managed more than four consecutive wins.
Like the Stormers, their charge came right at the start, including two victories in Australia on the first leg of their Antipodean tour, before they lost to the Chiefs and Crusaders (that game at Twickenham) and have never recaptured real momentum since.
Bulls supporters should be under no illusions, despite their team’s impressive form as things stand, that they still have it all to do, and will have to show unprecedented stamina to retain the title ...
