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Stats: Sharks v Bulls review

Cape Town – With the round-robin stages of the Super 14 a thing of the past, and the Bulls having snatched the ‘league’ title from under the noses of the Chiefs, all that remains are the two titanic semi-finals and the very real possibility that the final will take place just up the drag from where the British & Irish Lions kick off their tour against the Royal XV in Rustenburg next Saturday.

But that’s a headache for SANZAR’s and SA Rugby’s fixtures people to figure out – what we’re most interested in is the past weekend’s epic Sharks v Bulls match in Durban, which gave the men from Pretoria a home semi and saw the Sharks come oh so close to leapfrogging the Crusaders into fourth spot.

Last Friday, we looked at the statistics from Verusco, the New Zealand-based guys who supply video analysis systems to most of the Super 14 teams, including the Bulls and Sharks, and came to the conclusion that the 2007 champions’ best chances of repeating their performance in that final would be to do what they have done all season: keep the ball on a string when kicking from hand; ensure that the 10-12 defensive channel remains watertight; maintain structure at all times; and don’t deviate from the tried-and-tested game plan.

So, what did the stats reveal about a match was contested by two teams that played themselves to a standstill – and very nearly to a stalemate as well?

We analysed the two teams using 15 categories and while statistics should never be used exclusively to pinpoint why one side won and the other lost, in this case it’s hard to quibble with the black-and-white conclusions to be drawn.

The Bulls, as expected, lagged way behind when it came to ball-in-hand stats. The Sharks gained almost twice as many metres (1 352m to 756m), had twice the amount of runs (125-62), made twice as many line breaks (16-8) and offloads (20-9), and passed the ball generally more often (186-128).

Incredibly, six of the seven Sharks starting backs made at least 98m of ground, with Riaan Swanepoel gaining the least (73m) and Stefan Terblanche (199m) and JP Pietersen (198m) gaining the most. For the Bulls, only Morné Steyn (105m) and JP Nel (101m) made it into triple figures.

In addition, the Sharks also carried the ball 50% more than the Bulls (157-102) and cleaned out a lot more at the breakdown (105-76). So, from a statistical point of view, where did the Bulls gain a foothold in this match, and where on the field were the Sharks at their weakest, and therefore most vulnerable? Let’s take a look at the turnover, tackling and handling stats:

Turnovers forced:
Bulls - 22 (most: Bryan Habana, 5)
Sharks - 10 (most: Stefan Terblanche, 3)

Turnovers conceded:
Bulls - 17 (most: Fourie du Preez, 3)
Sharks - 33 (most: Terblanche, 7)

Turnover tackles:
Bulls - 15 (most: Habana, 4)
Sharks - 3 (three players, 1 each)

Handling errors:
Bulls - 25 (most: Du Preez, 5)
Sharks - 40 (most: Rory Kockott, 6)

Kicking metres gained:
Bulls - 1 542m (most: Steyn, 829m)
Sharks - 834m (most: Terblanche, 368m)

Tackling efficiency (attempted, made, missed, %):
Bulls - 205, 146, 59, 71.22%
Sharks - 155, 115, 40, 74.19%

From the above figures it’s easy to figure out where the Bulls gained the upper hand: they kept handling errors to a minimum, thereby not giving away possession; they turned over their opponents’ ball with ease while conceding only half that amount themselves; and their tackling forced the Sharks to cough up five times as much ball.

It’s not rocket science, but when you also take into account that the Bulls made nearly 150 tackles while booting the ball nearly twice as far downfield, the recipe for success becomes crystal clear: stay out of your own half, force your opponents into mistakes when they’re trying to run everything; and make as few errors as possible yourself. In short, classic knockout rugby by a team who have made an art form out of strangling the opposition.

But the big questions is: will this game plan be enough to allow the Bulls to beat the Crusaders and host the final? And will who emerge victorious from the all-New Zealand scrap between the Chiefs and Hurricanes? Join us again on Friday, when we’ll preview both semi-finals.

But before we go, we’ll leave you with one final thought: in the 2007 final against the self-same Bulls, the Sharks replaced their captain, John Smit, leaving them without crucial experience and leadership in those final frantic minutes. On Saturday again, Smit was substituted again after 57 minutes, not for the first time this season, either.

This column just cannot fathom why it is that one of the greatest Springbok captains of all time does not play the full 80 minutes in such a crucial match – or any match these days, for that matter. Quite simply, the substitution of such an influential figure like Smit is indefensible, especially when you take into account the Bulls’ attitude in the same situation.

On Saturday, the following Bulls Springboks played the full 80 minutes: Steenkamp, Matfield, Spies, Du Preez, Steyn, Habana, Ndungane. You just cannot imagine Victor Matfield leaving the field after an hour, or Fourie du Preez, or Morné Steyn...

For the record, Smit played in all 13 of the Sharks’ matches this year. He played the full 80 minutes just twice, in the opening match against the Stormers, and in the game against the Reds. In five matches, he played less than 40 minutes. In eight games, he played less than an hour.

Verusco are suppliers of video analysis systems to most of the South African Super 14 teams. Find out more at www.verusco.com or email info@verusco.com
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