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While SANZAR will meet broadcasters in a few months to determine how much money will be offered to finance the southern hemisphere game, administrators are concerned their leverage might diminish due to rugby suffering a slump in interest in major cities, including Sydney.
SANZAR's aim to gain more revenue by boosting the broadcasting deal, currently worth $323m over five years, when it expires at the end of next year will prove difficult if rugby's popularity appears to be in decline. Rugby is far more tantalising to the key broadcasters - News Limited and SuperSport in South Africa - if crowds and pay TV ratings are rising.
After the code went through a revival during last year's Test series, which attracted strong crowds and pay TV audiences, this year's low-key Super 14 tournament has caused interest to wane.
Australian Rugby Union chief executive and SANZAR board member John O'Neill on Monday told the Herald that pay TV ratings this year had been "average … and clearly the broadcasters in any renegotiation will be looking at how the product has been tracking".
The Waratahs' biggest game of the season, against the Crusaders last month, only just made the 20 most watched programs on pay TV that weekend. The Waratahs match finished 19th, with more than 185,000 viewers - almost 100,000 fewer than several run-of-the-mill rugby league matches that weekend.
It is understood that during a season in which the Waratahs have been repeatedly criticised for their uninspiring play, they have not been a big pay TV attraction.
Matches involving Australian teams in South Africa have also struggled to attract viewers. It is believed a recent Brumbies match played in South Africa, telecast live in the early hours of the morning, lured only 1900 Australian viewers.
Attendances have also been affected. In New Zealand, there has been a decrease of almost 55,000 spectators in the opening eight rounds this season.
In Australia, the Waratahs had an average crowd of 25,494 for Sydney Football Stadium home matches last season. Their SFS average has dropped to 22,463 this season. The Waratahs' overall average of 24,131 this year has been boosted by the 32,469 attendance when they played at ANZ Stadium against the Crusaders.
The Force's attendances in Perth have continued to fall in recent seasons, while Brumbies and Reds home crowd figures have fluctuated.
"The TV ratings haven't fallen out of bed by any means, but they are soft and not as strong as last year," O'Neill said on Monday. "They were good last year and we were hoping that trend would continue, but it has been pretty flat. No one's ringing alarm bells, but there is a renegotiation coming up and we're not sticking our heads in the sand. Rugby is a very valuable pay TV product, especially as a lot of people only have pay TV because of the rugby. Still, clearly you would like your ratings growing, not plateauing.
"Our ratings were affected early on by the Test match cricket coming out of South Africa and we've been hoping for a bounce back. But we haven't seen that yet. The global economic crisis has also had an impact on the game. People are being more selective with their discretionary dollars."
O'Neill recently attended a CEOs' meeting of the tier-one countries, where they talked about the effect of the recession on rugby's finances.'
"The three big risk areas are sponsorship, corporate hospitality and match-day revenue. What they've found in the UK is that corporate hospitality is down 20 to 30 per cent and more sponsors are looking to 'back-end' their payments, where they pay the bulk of the money at the end of the deal.
"Our markets in Sydney, Brisbane, Canberra and Perth are very different. But the two big markets - Sydney and Brisbane - are so important for us."
Under the SANZAR broadcasting deal, the countries must have competition options for Super rugby and Tri Nations on the table by June 30. The broadcasters have 60 days to respond. Then the parties go into negotiations. SANZAR hopes a deal will be finalised by the end of the year.
