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SA's strength on trial in S14

Johannesburg - South Africa's much-vaunted rugby strength goes on trail from this weekend when the first round of the 2009 Super 14 kicks off - and there is tremendous confidence from each of the country's five franchises that they can make it to the semi-finals.

With teams such as the Hurricanes and perennial winners Crusaders and the tough trips to the Antipodes, these dreams seem unrealistic for most of the sides.

Even without Robbie Deans as coach and Dan Carter at flyhalf, not to mention eight other All Blacks who have retired or play overseas, Richie McCaw's Crusaders, still with plenty of experience and confidence that winning brings, will again be the side to beat. New coach Todd Blackadder has the experience, the pedigree and the 'Saders passion to keep them at the top.

The Hurricanes, under-performers for so long, arguably have the best balanced side in the competition, and their challenge will be to play to their potential throughout. That will make them near unbeatable with players of the calibre of Cory Jane, David Smit, Ma'a Nonu, Piri Weepu, Hosea Gear and Nemia Tialata.

The Chiefs could be the other real threat from New Zealand after a successful pre-season series of matches. Notorious slow starters in the competition, they have a good side and in Greg Cooper an excellent coach.

The Highlanders are only a semblance of the teams under Anton Oliver and lack depth. They will most likely not be there for the run-in, and the Blues are also in a rebuilding phase. They have a new coach in former All Black Pat Lam, who has the unenviable task of turning the side around in his first season.

The Waratahs have lost a host of top players and their coach and there is a trend which shows that they are fickle. They will beat the best but will probably not make the play-offs again.

Force, for all their talent in players Matt Giteau, Drew Mitchell, captain Nathan Sharpe, Chris O'Young and Cameron Shepherd, remains an unsettled team and the goings-on with coach John Mitchells and his players not gelling as they should, theirs could be a difficult season. Depth, especially at scrumhalf, could be their last straw.

The Brumbies, under new coach Andy Friend and with some outstanding players, have the talent to make it to the final four and with personnel like Mark Gerard, Mark Chisholm, Stephen Hoiles, Tyrone Smith and Clyde Rathbone, they could be Australia's top side.

The Reds will come up for close scrutiny on Saturday when they play the Bulls at Loftus. They have some exciting youngsters and with a team boasting Australia's 2008 Rookie of the Year Peter Hynes, skipper James Horwill, Quade Cooper, Digby Ioane, Berrick Barnes as well as last year's All Black flank Daniel Braid, they will be no pushovers.

From a South African perspective, the Sharks are the favourites to go all the way. They have experience despite some, like Francois Steyn and Ryan Kankowski, still being youngsters in age; excellent depth; good balance; confidence and a great coach. They also have the advantage of a good draw, with big guns Crusaders, the Bulls, Hurricanes, Waratahs and Brumbies playing in Durban. The Sharks play the Chiefs, Blues, Force and Reds in Australasia.

Much is being expected of the Stormers. However, their tight five remain a cause for concern - especially with Andries Bekker's suspect back - and lack of depth in most positions could ultimately sink their aspirations, despite big names like Schalk Burger and Jean de Villiers and many other Springboks such as Tonderai Chavanga, Gcobani Bobo, Conrad Jantjes, Percy Montgomery, Peter Grant, Luke Watson, Ricky Januarie, Bolla Conradie and Schalk Brits.

The Bulls will probably be South Africa's best hope of success after the Sharks. Most of last year's problems have been resolved: coach Frans Ludeke has settled in; captain Victor Matfield is back after missing last year's campaign; the World Cup hangover is over - and they have eight World Cup players in their squad, remember - and they have overcome their reluctance to accept the ELVs.

They have everything former Super 14 winning coach Heyneke Meyer deems necessary for success - including a depth of leaders in the side and the same draw structure as in 2007 when they won the competition although they have to end off against the Sharks in Durban.

A problem remains with their adaptability to the new laws, however. But the renowned Bulls temperament when under pressure, loads of experience, probably the most quality depth of all 14 sides and a new mix of youth and experience could see them get to the semi-finals.

The Lions aim for the top six after propping up the log last year. The return of Jaque Fourie in midfield, Andre Pretorius who is being phased in and more striking power on the wing with Henno Mentz and Ashwin Willemse make this a better backline. Aggressive locks who keep opponents occupied and a top quality tighthead remain the problem, however, and they will have to overcome their habit of losing when a win seems likely if they want to be competitive on the log.

The Cheetahs have a well-balanced and stronger side than in 2008, despite losses of the magnitude of Springbok lock Barend Pieterse and brilliant No 8 Duanne Vermeulen. Good identifying of their weaknesses by coach Naka Drotske and a good off-season and warm-up matches will see them go into the competition with confidence.

They have a good 2008 defensive record but the back three, which will consist of a combination of Hennie Daniller, Danwel Demas, Fabian Juries and Jongi Nokwe, is a bit suspect in this department. However, their main problem will again be one of depth - and they will have to turn their many near-wins in 2008 into real wins or they'll remain at the bottom.

It's the toughest competition in the world, and predicting the semi-finalists is really sticking one's neck out. But how about the Sharks, the Bulls, Hurricanes, Crusaders and perhaps the Brumbies among the top four?

Only time will tell.

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