News24

Can the Boks be eliminated?

2011-09-29 14:28

Cape Town - As the Rugby World Cup reaches the final weekend of pool stage action, seven quarter-finals spots are mathematically still up for grabs and various theories abound as to which teams may upset the apple cart.

Sport24 has taken the liberty in ensuring you're up to speed in the event you find yourself perplexed by the weekend's frantic action and off searching for the calculator.

South Africa, England and Ireland head into the final round of World Cup pool action top of their groups and seemingly set for the quarter-finals, BUT they could all be flying home on Monday if things go against them this weekend.

Partly because of the bonus point rule, 13 teams still have a chance to make the last eight, with a 14th, New Zealand, the only team already through and guaranteed to finish top of Pool A.

POOL A

Remaining fixtures:

October 1 - France v Tonga - 07:00
October 2 - New Zealand v Canada - 04:30

- New Zealand have won the pool and will play the runners-up of Pool B in the quarter-finals.

- France will finish second if they win or draw against Tonga or if they lose but collect a bonus point or if they lose but Tonga fail to collect a bonus point and Canada fail to beat New Zealand.

- Tonga will finish second if they beat France and gain a bonus point and France do not gain a bonus point, assuming Canada fail to beat New Zealand.

- Canada will finish second if they beat New Zealand and gain a bonus point and France lose to Tonga without a bonus point.

- If France, Tonga and Canada all end on 10 points, second place will be decided on points difference, with France likely to take it.

- If in unlikely event that there is a tie regarding points difference, then the second placed team will be decided by the team with the best difference of tries scored and tries scored against them.

POOL B

Remaining fixtures:

October 1 - England v Scotland - 09:30
October 2 - Argentina v Georgia - 02:00

- England will win the group if they beat or draw with Scotland or lose but with two bonus points.

- If England lose and there are no bonus points in the match, either side could qualify but it would depend on Argentina's result.

- If Scotland win and there are no bonus points leaving England and Scotland both on 14 points and Argentina win with a bonus point, Argentina would win the group with 15 points and Scotland would finish second on their head-to-head result against England.

- If Scotland win and there are no bonus points and Argentina win without a bonus point, all three teams would be on 14 points and positions would be decided on points difference. This would almost certainly eliminate Scotland while the top two positions would be dependent on the margins of victory/defeat in their remaining games.

- If all three teams end up on 14 or 15 points, positions would be decided on overall points difference in the group, which would almost certainly eliminate Scotland. If Scotland lose but gain one or two bonus points, they could finish second, so long as Argentina also lose and gain fewer bonus points.

- If Scotland win with a bonus point and England do not gain two bonus points in defeat they will win the group if Argentina fail to beat Georgia with a bonus point.

- If Argentina win with a bonus point and England lose and do not gain a bonus point, Argentina would top the group.

- If Scotland and Argentina both win with a bonus point and England fail to gain a bonus point, Argentina would top the group ahead of Scotland.

- If Argentina win with or without a bonus point and Scotland fail to win, then Argentina would finish second.

- If both games are draws, England would top the group ahead of Argentina.

Pool C

Remaining fixtures:

October 1 - Australia v Russia - 04:30
October 2 - Ireland v Italy - 09:30

- Ireland will win the group if they beat Italy

- Ireland will qualify if they avoid defeat to Italy

- Australia are guaranteed qualification if they beat Russia with a bonus point.

- Australia will top the group if they beat Russia with a bonus point and Italy beat Ireland (with Ireland failing to secure two bonus points in defeat).

- Italy will win the group if they beat Ireland (and Ireland fail to get two bonus points) and Australia fail to beat Russia.

- Italy will win the group if they beat Ireland with a bonus point and Australia beat Russia but fail to get a bonus point (as long as Ireland fail to secure two bonus points in defeat).

- Italy will finish second if they beat Ireland, with or without a bonus point (assuming Ireland do not gain two bonus points in defeat) if Australia win with a bonus point.

- If Ireland lose to Italy and gain a bonus point, Italy fail to get a bonus point and Australia beat Russia without a bonus point, all three teams would end up on 14 points and positions would be decided on points difference with Italy likely to miss out.

- If Ireland lose to Italy and gain two bonus points, Italy get a bonus point and Australia beat Russia with a bonus point, all three teams would end up on 15 points and positions would be decided on points difference with Italy likely to miss out.

- If Australia lose to Russia and do not gain a bonus point, Ireland would qualify and Italy would qualify if they take at least a bonus point from their match against Ireland.

- If Australia lose to Russia and gain a bonus point, they would still qualify if Italy fail to beat or draw with Ireland or do not gain two bonus points in defeat.

POOL D

Remaining fixtures:

September 30 - South Africa v Samoa - 09:30
October 2 - Wales v Fiji - 07:00

- South Africa will win the group if they beat or draw with Samoa or if they lose and gain two bonus points.

- If Wales win and Samoa lose or draw, Wales will finish second.

- If Samoa win and Wales lose or draw, Samoa will qualify for the quarter-final.

- If Samoa win and there are no bonus points, leaving South Africa and Samoa on 14 points and Wales beat Fiji with a bonus point, Wales would win the group with 15 points and Samoa would finish second on their head to head record against South Africa.

- If Samoa win and there are no bonus points, and Wales beat Fiji without a bonus point, all three teams would be on 14 points and placing would be decided on points difference, with South Africa likely to win the pool.

- If Fiji beat Wales with a bonus point and South Africa beat Samoa (with Samoa failing to secure a single bonus point), then South Africa would win the group and leave three teams tied on 10 points. The second placed team will then be decided via the points difference rule.

In the event of a tie after the pool phase, the basic rules for qualification from the pool phase as stipulated by the IRB are as follows:

"If at the completion of the pool phase two or more teams are level on match points, then the following criteria shall be used in the following order until one of the teams can be determined as the higher ranked:

1. The winner of the match in which the two tied teams have played each other shall be the higher ranked;

2. The team which has the best difference between points scored for and points scored against in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked.

3. The team which has the best difference between tries scored for and tries scored against in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked.

4. The team which has scored most points in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked.

5. The team which has scored most tries in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked.

6. Should the tie be unresolved at the conclusion of steps 1 through 5, the team that is higher ranked in the updated Official IRB World Rankings on October 3, 2011.

Reuters

Comments
  • Jonti - 2011-09-29 14:42

    What pointless jibber jabber! Sport24 must be really hard up for stories today

      jaetype - 2011-09-29 17:57

      @moerme i mean maori, i think you're just an AB wannabe South African who does'nt know too much about the game and instead is intent on rubbing EVERYONE else up the wrong way. Have a nice day.

      Tax_payer - 2011-09-30 13:07

      Thats quite funny Jonti...LOL I agree

  • marco - 2011-09-29 14:44

    Lot of people talking about Upsets - Scotland to upset England, Italy to upset Ireland, Samoa to upset South Africa, Fiji to upset Wales and Tonga to upset France. Only one of these I feel has a chance of happening. Scotland cannot get to the quarter finals unless they win by 8 points and hope England play a howler.When was the last time Scotland scored 4 tries against any top 8 side? Italy vs Ireland.Many Australians are hoping this one is the UPSET par excellence,but again Italy only had a 5 day turn around whereas Ireland had 7 come Sunday.Both teams targeted this game as it is knock out time for both,if Ireland run it and press the Italian backs the upset isn't on.Ireland are injury free,it won't be a thrashing,but Ireland should get over the line. Wales vs Fiji - Fiji are not the same team as in 07,and Wales are looking very strong.Wales to win it comfortably after about 60 minutes. Samoa vs South Africa -the Springbok are rejuvenated and are playing some great stuff -Samoa don't have the firepower to show the South Africans and the technical superiority of the South Africans in the set-pieces.The Boks all the way here. Tonga vs France is where an UPSET is most likely.France are in disarray,their coach is getting criticial decisions wrong and a lot of the French players are seriously out of form.Tonga could use this to their advantage and with Parra at 10 Tonga can exploit the French defensive line.The French will collapse if the Tongans get ahead of them.

      RandomDude - 2011-09-29 15:41

      if we play the way we played against Fiji we should win it easy, but if we play like we did the game against Wales we could be in trouble.. but I'd be more of a case of us doing it to ourselves than them doing it to us

      Jakalas - 2011-09-29 16:01

      @Randomdude. I think you are underestimating the strength of the Welsh. They had a really good game against us. It was also our first game. Don't read too much into it.

      colin.dovey - 2011-09-29 18:26

      Good, sane, balanced analysis @marco

  • Chief Kok - 2011-09-29 14:46

    "Canada will finish second if they beat New Zealand" Plz, just get real!!!!!

      GHT - 2011-09-29 15:43

      It is still a fact. Just because it is unlikely to happen doesn't make it untrue. They will finish second if they beat New Zealand.

      ikey_tiger - 2011-09-29 17:18

      i hope for your sake Canada doesn't do to you what they did to us in 95.. or do i?

      Neilson - 2011-09-29 22:50

      Oh Canada!!!

  • Anneleen - 2011-09-29 14:55

    ...write off the Boks at your own peril...they are still a huge factor...a strong force to be taken into account...go Bokke!!!!!!!!!!!!

      aus_beats_sa - 2011-09-29 22:20

      Yes a huge factor as they occupy economy class when the Wallabies KO them in the QF's - LOL PS. Grandpa Smit maybe in Business class coz most airlines pity the eldery with bad hips :)

  • Kapa O Pango - 2011-09-29 14:55

    Lets Play...!!!!

  • frans.mosia - 2011-09-29 15:10

    There is no way the springboks can come home before 23 October 2011.

      Johnny-BB - 2011-09-29 16:18

      .....Proteas going home very soon..... .......Go All Blacks...!!

      Sjamies - 2011-09-29 17:04

      Well at least if the Black Caps choke at yet another world cup, they haven't got far to go home this time... ha ha... chokers.

      Espresso - 2011-09-30 08:53

      How I love these remarks from people like JohnnyBB and the other knobjockeys who call the Boks the Proteas. It is so blatantly clear that firstly they are just trying to get under the skin of the Bok supporters, and secondly they are not true rugby fans as they should realise that there is not a single proper rugby supporter worldwide that would be happy for the Boks not to be called the Boks. Speak with any former All Black, or current player and the Boks have a very special and traditional place in world rugby. Win or lose in this world cup, the Boks will always be a major force and respected by true lovers of the game. The jibes by these idiots are laughable.

  • Jamal - 2011-09-29 15:37

    I know the South African All Black supporters are blubbering idiots, some of these posts reinforce this. Have you toothless wonders checked the age of the All Blacks, they are not exactly young themselves.

      Maori - 2011-09-29 15:43

      You are right, they are not young, but skillfull enough to teach the protea pensioners a lesson or two or three! Go ALL BLACKS!!!

      Jamal - 2011-09-29 15:57

      @Maori, as I said before the South African AB supporters approached me, but I didnt meet there criteria; I wasnt a tik kop, I only had one kid and I treated my wife/partner with respect - that was a no no for them.

      marco - 2011-09-29 16:03

      @Jamal Yeah mate if you look at the Samoans it gets even worse.With an average of 30 years and 51 days, Samoa are fielding their oldest starting line-up ever in a World Cup match.The Boks average age is 27 years 93 days.In 1991 the All Blacks were favourites to win it,but lost and Australia took the Trophy home. All Blacks Andy Earl,Richard Lowe,Steve McDowell and Alan and Gary Whetton were all "grandads" of rugby over 30.In 1995 Australia went to South Africa as favourites but their players who had helped lift the title in 1991,like Michael Lynagh (32),David Campese (33),Troy Coker (30),Ewen McKenzie (30),Dan Crowley (30) and Rod McCall (32)was just one World Cup too many. The smallest margin of victory ever for South Africa against Samoa was 35-8 in Johannesburg,shortly before the Springboks became World Champions in 2007.Can't see that changing anytime soon,do you?

      boetman123 - 2011-09-29 17:01

      @Jamal - love the anti-@Maori comeback!

      Sjamies - 2011-09-29 17:14

      @Maori. The Boks are about the same combined age England were when they won the WC in 2003. Experience wins world cups, especially in finals. But then the last time the All Blacks played a final was 1995 so we'll forgive you for forgetting this.

      pants - 2011-09-29 18:59

      @Jamal Hahahahahahahahaa..... Nice retort Jamal, However I think the best think to do with the toothless wonder wannabe tik heads is to completely ignore them, and by that I mean no thumbs up or down don't respond to them, in fact don't even read their posts, completely ignore them as you would when they get in your face in the street begging for change to buy a pap sak or more tik. With their limited attention spans they will go away soon enough.

      Jaco - 2011-09-30 12:40

      @Jamal jou yster!

  • wombles - 2011-09-29 15:58

    4 more years maori, simpiwe ,kok maybe your grandchildren will one day witness an ab victory in wc final

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