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Just what becomes a certainty after this weekend and what will remain a matter of speculation will depend on the results of the two big feature games on Saturday. Western Province host Griquas at Newlands in the early game and the Blue Bulls play the Free State Cheetahs in the later one.
What is on the line is the Western Province and Blue Bull quest for home ground advantage in the semifinals, and the right of Griquas and the Cheetahs to be in the semifinals at all. If Griquas beat WP, it will effectively end the Cheetahs’ hopes unless the Bloemfontein team can win in Pretoria.
If WP win, then they have effectively wrapped up their home semi-final as they have worked out that they need just nine more log points to do so. And the chances of them not picking up a full house of five log points when they play the Boland Cavaliers in Cape Town the following week must rank at close to nil.
First prize for Province will surely be a four try win that will keep the pressure on the Sharks at the top of the log. Ideally WP would like to finish top as it would probably mean an easier semifinal, and they would then host a lucrative final if they get through.
For them it is very much like the Springbok outlook at the start of the 1995 Rugby World Cup – there is a low road and a high road. The low road will see them either travelling for the semifinal or hosting the Bulls, and the high road will see them hosting Griquas or the Cheetahs, with home advantage in the decider guaranteed if they win.
For the Bulls the objective is quite simple – they have to win against the Cheetahs both to keep the pressure on WP in the battle for a home semifinal, and to ensure that they remain out of range of Griquas and the Cheetahs.
It is in many senses the last chance saloon for the Cheetahs this week, with only an outside chance of them sneaking into the play-offs if they lose at Loftus. What counts in their favour, and gives them that outside chance, is their easy run-in through the last matches, with the Leopards and Boland their opponents.
Even big wins over those opponents will count for nothing though if Griquas pick up a win, or even just two bonus points, from their remaining fixtures against WP, the Bulls and the Sharks.
The chances of a Cheetahs win were significantly increased this week by the announcement that some key Springboks would not be available for the Bulls, in particular Fourie du Preez. The scrumhalf is a crucial member of not only the Bulls but also the Boks, and he would have made a big difference to the Bulls chances had he been present.
The Bulls should still be heavily favoured on their home ground, but not by as much as they would have been had the Springbok No9 been present.
WP should win at Newlands, but this is their first big game since the departure of Chris Jack, and it will be interesting to see how the absence of the All Black will impact on their confidence. The forwards were excellent against the Leopards last week, but Griquas pose a different threat in the lineouts.
With Andries Bekker still out for another week, the onus will be on young De Kock Steenkamp to build on his solid first start in Potchefstroom, while the prospect of rain might not sit well with WP coach Allister Coetzee.
When Willem de Waal was present WP would have welcomed the wet weather that has been forecast, but with De Waal out it could probably be said that Griquas have a better kicking game than WP.
The Sharks should cement their position at the top of the log when they start the weekend off at ABSA Stadium against the Leopards, while the Lions should not have too many problems at home to Boland on Saturday.
Fixtures and predictions
Friday night
Sharks v Platinum Leopards Durban 7.10pm
Prediction: Sharks by 40.
Saturday
Xerox Lions v Boland Cavaliers Johannesburg 3pm
Prediction: Lions by 30 to 40.
Vodacom Western Province v GWK Griquas Cape Town 3pm
Prediction: WP by 10 to 18.
Vodacom Blue Bulls v Vodacom Cheetahs Bloemfontein 5.05pm
Prediction: Blue Bulls by 7 to 15.
