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Currie Cup winner will be...

J.J. Harmse

Pretoria - It is said at the beginning of every Currie Cup that this one will be watered down and not have the same impact as in previous years. And then, come the end of the tournament, everybody says that it’s the best ever!

Those were the words of South African Rugby Union (SARU) CEO Jurie Roux on the eve of the 2011 tournament that carries the slogan “my team, my passion”.

However, if one asks Joe Public about the biggest highlight of 2007, not many people will remind you of the Free State Cheetahs' epic victory over the Lions. Rather, they will refer to events in Paris where the Springboks won the Rugby World Cup.

The effect will certainly be similar if the Boks manage to win the Webb Ellis Cup in New Zealand later this year.

If the Boks lose - or worse even are eliminated in the knockout games – there will be an increase in intensity in the last few weeks of the Currie Cup, particularly if the Springboks return.

With the tournament shorn of at least 30 Springboks up front and at least another 20 that will only be able to play after a month, it’s difficult to choose a winner and early results may have a big effect on the tournament.

The teams that have lost the fewest players since Super Rugby will have the advantage of cohesion and rhythm, and should therefore be the favourites.

That makes the Lions a very dangerous side. They have only lost Butch James and Elton Jantjies from their Super Rugby squad – and James also only joined them late in the tournament.

Coach John Mitchell can therefore pick virtually the same side that drew with a Top-6 team (the Sharks) in the Lions’ final league game – and that shows the momentum the Lions have at present.

Their opening game is against the Pumas, who love playing against their Super Rugby partners. This opening game for the tournament may therefore be a thriller.

The Pumas are sure to cause some shocks on their home grounds in Witbank (against the Free State Cheetahs and WP) and Nelspruit (against the Leopards, Lions, Blue Bulls, Griquas and the Sharks).

Griquas are being coached by Abrie Minnie this season, with Pote Human assisting him. Human’s pack will be able to drive and maul – and that should be the ideal platform for Sarel Pretorius to continue his love affair with opponents’ trylines.

Jonathan Mokuena and Fabian Juries are outstanding acquisitions and the latter is set to take over Bjorn Basson’s try-scoring mantle.

Johan "Pine" Pienaar has the difficult task of restoring the Blue Bulls to the summit of the competition, and could not have picked a more difficult year to begin his onslaught.

The Bulls are without at least 16 Springboks and even though they will be strengthened by mid-August, their depth will be seriously tested.

You can nevertheless expect Francois Brummer to show why he is viewed as Morné Steyn’s understudy. The experience of Gary Botha, Jaco Pretorius and Dewald Potgieter may also be decisive.

The Sharks suddenly have lock problems with Steven Sykes and Gerhard Mostert overseas, and Alistair Hargreaves playing in the Tri-Nations. It may prove a problem – particularly in the first few weeks. However, Jacques-Louis Potgieter and Frederic Michalak are both points machines and match-winners. The problem will be ensuring they get enough possession.

In Cape Town, Western Province coach Allister Coetzee will hope that the stars of last year’s Under-21 campaign (Johann Sadie, Danie Poolman, JJ Engelbrecht, Louis Schreuder) can build on their Super Rugby experience. Province have been without the trophy for a decade and their hunger will be huge.

The Leopards will struggle without Michael Bondesio, especially if they lose early on. However, the performances of Joubert Engelbrecht will be closely watched.

Just as was the case in 2007, the Cheetahs can win it again. They have the pedigree and temperament and in Sias Ebersohn they have a new general capable of leading the team to success.
 
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