According to the ICC's predictor, if the Proteas beat Sri Lanka 2-0 and Zim 1-0, then all Aus have to do is draw 1-1 against Pak in the UAE to retain the top spot.
But how about England? They dropped to number two after the 2012 loss to the Proteas. Since then they have:
Beaten India 2-1 in India
Drew 0-0 with NZ in NZ
Beat NZ 2-0 in England
Beat Aus 3-0 in England
Lost 0-5 to Aus in Aus
During that run, they slipped from second to third to fourth, and were in danger of dropping to fifth if Pak had beaten Sri Lanka in the UAE. Pak eventually drew that series so England held on to fourth. Then India had a poor run in SA and NZ, so England managed to climb back to third, where they still are currently. But get this - if England beat Sri Lanka 2-0 and India 5-0 in their home summer series, they remain in third.
So a side that will have a record of P25 W14 D5 L6 since late 2012 will have lost one spot in the rankings. How can you win five of your seven most recent series (including four where the opponents didn't win a Test), draw one and lose only one - and still DROP in the rankings??
But how about England? They dropped to number two after the 2012 loss to the Proteas. Since then they have:
Beaten India 2-1 in India
Drew 0-0 with NZ in NZ
Beat NZ 2-0 in England
Beat Aus 3-0 in England
Lost 0-5 to Aus in Aus
During that run, they slipped from second to third to fourth, and were in danger of dropping to fifth if Pak had beaten Sri Lanka in the UAE. Pak eventually drew that series so England held on to fourth. Then India had a poor run in SA and NZ, so England managed to climb back to third, where they still are currently. But get this - if England beat Sri Lanka 2-0 and India 5-0 in their home summer series, they remain in third.
So a side that will have a record of P25 W14 D5 L6 since late 2012 will have lost one spot in the rankings. How can you win five of your seven most recent series (including four where the opponents didn't win a Test), draw one and lose only one - and still DROP in the rankings??