Comment: Rob Houwing

Cape Town – The brutal truth is that Australia are hot favourites, with two days to play at the WACA, to grab a 1-0 lead in the three-Test series against South Africa.

They are 322 runs to the good with three second-innings wickets to play with and, unless the Proteas bowlers strike rapidly again in the fledgling stages of day four, the tourists will be chasing an improbable target in the vicinity of 350 or even beyond.

And that would automatically mean Graeme Smith’s troops, for all their truly praiseworthy refusal to lie down after the Mitchell Johnson rampage, needing a record-breaking effort to win – a draw looks massively unlikely now unless the glorious Perth weather takes a major turn for the worse.

The best triumphant fourth-innings previously by them against the Aussies came at Kingsmead in 2001/02, when they managed 340 for five, albeit that circumstances were vastly different as it was a dead-rubber Test.

So history, among the various other mounting obstacles, can probably be considered against them.

But a glance at recent Tests at the WACA does reveal a few illuminating characteristics … ones which the Proteas might do well to take some fortitude from.

Of course every Test on every pitch and at every venue is a different beast, and the one in use for this one is beginning to show some signs of deterioration – as all Test strips do – as the game advances.

But it is certainly no horror show yet and it is interesting that one or two critics – notably the knowledgeable Adam Bacher in the SuperSport studio – have a hunch “somebody” could yet go to a really big, three-figure score at the WACA.

Should it happen, that somebody would presumably be a South African, given that the Aussie innings, with any luck, will not last much longer on day four.

And the WACA has shown some evidence in recent years that the third and fourth innings of a Test match there can, strangely, be plainer sailing for batsmen than the first and second.

In the last Perth Test, when India unexpectedly beat Australia in January 2008 despite losing the series 2-1, the best total of the game was amassed by the Aussies in the final innings, when they posted a spirited 340 in pursuit of 413.

Before that, in December 2006, England and Australia both failed to even reach 250 in their first knocks during the Ashes encounter, before the hosts ran riot with 527 for five declared in their second turn at the crease.

There were centuries for all of Michael Clarke, Mike Hussey and Adam Gilchrist, plus 92 for Matthew Hayden (how he’d love that now!) along the way.

And when England chased a demoralising 557 target, they totalled a gritty 350 with Alastair Cook striking 116.

Similarly, in the last WACA Test between the Aussies and South Africa in 2005/06, neither side passed 300 in the first innings, and then the home side again cranked it up with 528 for eight – Brad Hodge posted a double century.

The Proteas then batted for 126 overs in saving the match by scoring 287 for five, with Jacques Rudolph producing a rearguard 102 not out.

So there can be strange batting “stings in the tail” at this ground.

Now is perhaps not yet the time, then, to abandon all South African hope even if we know where the smart money should be placed …