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Cape Town - Following their 19-run Duckworth-Lewis loss to Pakistan on Wednesday, the Proteas must beat India in London on Sunday to ensure progression to the semi-finals of the ICC Champions Trophy.
The Proteas were poor with both bat (with the exception of David Miller) and ball (with the exception of Morne Morkel), but Pakistan were full value for their win and have now thrown themselves right back into the playoff mix.
India and Sri Lanka meet at The Oval on Thursday, and what happens there could have a major say in South Africa's fortune.
Remaining fixtures in Group B:
Thursday, June 8: India v Sri Lanka
Sunday, June 11: South Africa v India
Monday, June 12: Sri Lanka v Pakistan
And, this is how the pool looks at the moment, with the top two qualifying for the semi-finals.
(Log: SuperSport)
It all gets a bit complicated, but here are the possible scenarios heading into the business end of the pool.
We'll use the India v Sri Lanka game as the basis for our hypotheticals.
If India beat Sri Lanka:
India would move up to 4 points. South Africa would then have to beat India on Sunday, leaving both of those sides on 4 points. India would be expected to have a superior net run rate compared to the Proteas. If Sri Lanka beat Pakistan on Monday, then both of those sides would have 2 points each and South Africa would qualify. But, if Pakistan beat Sri Lanka, then they would join India and South Africa on 4 points. The Proteas currently enjoy a far healthier net run rate than Pakistan, suggesting that they would qualify in that scenario.
If Sri Lanka beat India:
This is the most straight-forward scenario for the Proteas, and indeed the whole group. It would turn Sunday's clash against India into an effective quarter-final. Both sides would enter that match on 2 points each, while Sri Lanka and Pakistan would enter the exact same scenario. It is the one way that ensures that net run rate will not come into the equation, provided the weather doesn't ruin the final round of fixtures.
If Sri Lanka and India is rained out:
This would take India to 3 points, meaning that the Proteas could still jump ahead of them with victory on Sunday. Whatever happened in the other match would not be able to stop South Africa from qualifying, provided they get the win.
If India v South Africa is washed out:
That would take the Proteas to 3 points, which would only be enough if India beat Sri Lanka on Thursday and then Sri Lanka either beat or share the points with Pakistan on Monday.
Can the Proteas lose against India and still qualify?
Yes. If India win against Sri Lanka and then beat the Proteas they will go to 6 points. South Africa will finish on 2 points, but if Sri Lanka then beat Pakistan on Monday there will be a scenario where the Proteas, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are all on 2 points each. Depending on how badly the Proteas lose to India, their net run rate could still be good enough to see them through.
So, good luck to you in figuring this all out! And, good luck to the Proteas on Sunday!
